GBP/USD's recovery from 1.4230 extends further last week and with a short term bottom in place, more consolidations would possibly be seen first. Such recovery might extend further to 38.2% retracement of 1.5521 to 1.4230 at 1.4723 next. But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement at 1.5028 and finally bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.4230 low will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.3848 next.

In the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD