GBP/USD managed to hold above 1.5643 support last week and the late break of 1.5879 minor resistance suggests that rise from 1.5234 is resuming. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week and break of 1.5928 will confirm this bullish case. In such case, GBP/USD should target 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168) next. On the downside, break of 1.5648 is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Recent development, with lack of sustained selling, dampened the bearish view that such consolidation is completed. We'll turn neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.6165 will favor that such consolidation is going to extend with another rise. But strong resistance should be seen at 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside to conclude the consolidation. On the downside, below 1.5234 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed and bring deeper fall to 1.4229 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.