GBP/USD's recovery extended further to as high as 1.4885 last week but lost momentum since then. As noted before, we're expecting upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.4230 to 1.4769 from 1.4346 at 1.4885. Initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 1.4644 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.4346 support will indicate that whole recovery from 1.4230 is finished and will bring down trend resumption to 1.4230 and below. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4885 will target 1.5053 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD