GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4230 extended further to as high as 1.5075 last week. The stronger than expected rise suggest that it's corrective whole fall from 1.6875 instead of fall from 1.5521. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.4230 at 1.5240 next. On the downside, below 1.4855 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But another rise will now remain in favor as long as 1.4346 support holds.

In the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD