GBP/USD edged higher to 1.5240 last week, hit 38.2% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.4230 at 1.5240 and weakened mildly. As noted before, whole recovery from 1.4230 is treated as correction in the larger decline and is expected to conclude between 1.5240 fibo resistance and fall channel resistance. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside potential is limited. On the downside, break of 1.4873 will argue that rebound from 1.4230 is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. However, decisive break 1.5521 resistance will argue that whole fall from 1.7043 is finished. This will also suggest that medium term rise from 1.3503 is not finished yet and another high above 1.7043 might be seen before long term down trend from 2.1161 resumes.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 next.

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