GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | March 25 2012 6:24 AM

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.5922 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. With 1.5747 minor support intact, we'd slightly favor further upside ahead and break of 1.5922 will target 1.5991 resistance first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound form 1.5234 and should target 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Though, below 1.5747 will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 1.5602 support instead. After all, note again that as long as 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168) holds, whole decline from 1.6746 is in favor to extend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Recent development, with lack of sustained selling, dampened the bearish view that such consolidation is completed. We'll stay neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.6165 will favor that such consolidation is going to extend with another rise. But strong resistance should be seen at 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside to conclude the consolidation. On the downside, below 1.5234 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed and bring deeper fall to 1.4229 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

GBP/USD