GBP/USD retreated to as low as 1.5123 last week but rebounded strongly after drawing support from near term rising channel. Whole choppy rise from 1.4230 is likely still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.5470 and above. Note that decisive break of 1.5521 resistsance will confirm that whole fall from 1.7043 has completed at 1.4230 already and target 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. However, failure below 1.5521, followed by break of 1.5123 support, will revive the case that fall from 1.7043 is still in progress and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for another low below 1.4230.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above medium term falling channel argues that whole fall from 1.7043 is finished at 1.4230 already. Break of 1.5521 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Also, this will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is the likely the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2009 low of 1.3503. In such case, stronger rally would be seen to 1.7043 resistance and possibly above before long term down trend resumes. On the downside, failure below 1.5521 resistance and break of 1.4947 support will revive that case that fall from 1.7043 is still in progress for 1.3503 low.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

width=598

width=598

width=598