GBP/USD's fall extended further to as low as 1.5464 last week despite some intraweek volatility. The sustained trading below near term rising trend line indicates that whole rebound from 1.4230 is likely completed after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 1.5123 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4230 to 1.5997 at 1.5114). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 1.4230 and below. On the upside, above 1.5669 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 1.5997 is finished and bring stronger recovery. But still, risk will continue to remain on the downside as long as 1.5997 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation might be completed and down trend from 2.1161 is possibly resuming for another low below 1.3503. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

/

width=598

width=598

width=598