GBP/USD's fall from 1.6300 accelerated to as low as 1.5731 last week before forming a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5731 at 1.5948 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5731 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.5234 to 1.6300 at 1.5641 next. Sustained break there should pave the way to retest 1.5234 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Such consolidation could be in form of a triangle that's completed at 1.6300 but this is far from being certain. We'll stay neutral until a break of 1.5234 support, which indicates down trend resumption. Before that, more choppy range trading could be seen between 1.5234/6746.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from there is confirmed to be completed.