GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6309 last week but faced some strong resistance from 1.6300 key resistance level and retreated. Upside momentum was also unconvincing. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations would be seen. Below 1.6163 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper decline. But after all, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.5912 support holds and we'd expect further rise ahead. Sustained break of 1.6300 will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1.6618/6746 resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. There are various interpretations on the pattern from 1.3503 but after all, as long as 1.5234 support holds, such consolidation would extend. On the upside, sustained break 1.6300 will likely bring further rise to 1.7043 and above to extend the consolidation pattern.

In the longer term picture, the complicated triangle pattern from 1.3503 argues that it's the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.

 

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