Main analysis

Update for: 2011-12-26 - 2012-01-01

Posted on: Monday, 26 December 2011 15:38


GBPUSD: 1.5627

 Short-Term Trend:  weak downtrend


The market rallied to 1.5770 last week in what appeared to be a smaller degree wave c of (ii) and then gradually declined by the end of the week. Honestly, the internal structure of wave (ii) on 240-min chart seems a bit akward and that is a cause of concern that wave (ii) may not have ended yet. But on the daily chart wave (ii) of C seems complete and so, we expect further decline this week. The trending conditins are not that good either, so until we see a clean break below 1.54000, we will not know that the larger-degree downtrend has resumed. Ultimately we contunue to expect a decline twd 1.50 before wave (D) is over.
On the upside, a move abv 1.5770 negates the above outlook, signals something is wrong with our wave interpretation here.

Strategy: Shorts favored here against 1.5780. Target=1.5000.

Next Update: Mon, 01/02/2012.

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