GBP/USD rebounded strongly last week and the break of 1.6603 resistance mixed up the short term outlook. Consolidation from 1.6692 might have completed at 1.6261 already. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week and further rise could be seen to 1.6692/6740 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.6465 will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Also, this will argue that price actions from 1.6250 are consolidation to fall from 1.6692 and has completed. Further break of 1.6261 will bring fall resumption to 1.5706 low.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed. 1.6740 resistance looks vulnerable in case of resumption of rise from 1.5706. Break there will confirm that fall from 1.7043 has completed with three waves down to 1.5706 already. The three wave structure will indicate that it's merely a correction to medium term rebound from 1.3503 only. In other words, another high above 1.7043 should be seen before GBP/USD tops out. Nevertheless, before that, the bearish case is still mildly in favor. Below 1.6261 support will revive the case that GBP/USD has topped out at 1.7043 already and turn focus back to 1.5706 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, has likely completed and fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated and resumption of such down trend that will send GBP/USD through 1.3503 low eventually.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

GBP/USD