Market Brief

The Usd was slightly weaker in the Asian session, as risk appetite benefited from advance detail for the US Treasury toxic asset plan. While not expected to be formal released until 12:45 today, an outline has already been reported by the media. The EurUsd traded up from 1.3650 to 1.3736, while the UsdJpy lost early gains, falling sharply from 96.56 to 95.70. Commodity currencies gained on higher commodity prices and growing risk sentiment, with AudUsd closing in on the 0.7000 level and the NzdUsd trading to 0.5672 from 0.5579. Newswires reported that the US government is expected to invest $75bn-$100bn from its bailout fund to partner with private investors and purchase both troubled new and old assets. Markets have reacted positively to proactive programs and we have witnessed a correlation with USD weakness as traders have reestablished risky trades. However, while we are not going to stand inform of this trend we are hesitant to go in full tilt. First is that fact that these aggressive programs are not guaranteed to work, as economist Paul Krugman points out in his recent NY Times article (the plan is basically a subsidy and doesn't clean up Banks' balance sheets). Put perhaps more concerning is the lack of response from the ECB. The rapid rise in the Euro has effectively offset recent ECB easing and takes control of monetary policy out of their hands. By forgoing a coordinated response offered at the last G20 meeting, the ECB must go alone despite heavy internal opposition. We expect an additional 50bp cut and discussions surrounding QE to increase. Even the slightest hint that the ECB is considering these unorthodox policy will cause the Euro to loss much ground.