Thursday's Weekly Export Sales Report showed 1.214 million metric tons of corn was sold last week. This was up 40% from the week prior, 11% over our strong four week average and well over a year ago number of 775 thousand metric tons. Key Asian Markets that account for three quarters of our exportable grain exports were in for 432 t.m.t. of the total vs... 354 the week prior. Asian business continues good- as it has been all year with China building a corn reserve forcing surrounding Asian neighbors to over book U.S. beans but other import countries are getting more aggressive on concerns regarding weather issues. This could push prices much higher later as happened last year. Corn was sluggish mid week after hitting our 3.64 support Monday but late week we saw buying activity as near and long term weather reports were all turning very wet the next 15 days. Jeopardizing planting progress already behind normal pace. Sunday through Tuesday appears to see 70% of the Midwest corn and bean belt states with one to three inches of rain with more mid week then again the next week end. Some of the longer forecasts see early May looking as wet as March was when flooding occurred. Stay long corn as long as May support at 3.66 next week holds. Add on a close over 3.82.
Thursday's Weekly Export Sales Report came in at 617 t.m.t. down 24% from the week prior but 9% over our strong four week average. We were also well over a year ago of just 376 t.m.t. Key player China was in for 186 t.m.t. of new business and with old added in the week it showed a little over 400 t.m.t. to China. Like corn- beans too are seeing a pick up in business from other importing countries as they fear a double of prices like last year. They are all getting coverage at these price levels. Wrist.com the weather site sees planting delays for wheat is normally the start of the bean planting season May 1st. The ten to fifteen day outlook looks to keep early field work and planting under a year ago. The strong pick up in April demand for beans and further cuts in yields out of Argentina sets up a bullish psychology going into our May USDA Monthly Crop Report with traders looking for another drop in ending stocks. This all keeps beans in a buying mode. July beans start the week with support at 10.25. If taken out, worse case scenario on month end profit taking would be 10.10. Minor resistance is at 10.60 and major 10.75. Buy breaks and add on a lose over 10.75.
Thursday's Weekly Export Sales Report showed 232 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week vs.. 221 the week prior. Both numbers are low as 630 t.m.t. or more is needed to be price friendly. Demand remains weak until our new crop comes to harvest late May. Wxrisk.com sees a lot of rain early next week for the wheat fields of Texas and Oklahoma hard hit from the early April freeze. This should stabilize crop conditions but the poor ratings and freeze damage will make any improvement only marginal. The key to the winter crop comes with Kansas and the wheat head development. Current early stand conditions improved last week but only 1% of the heads were developed and it is the head kernels when full that show freeze damage. So the next two weeks will tell if severe or permanent damage was done as we will jump to 40% heads developed. If damage surfaces along with further spring wheat planting delays we could push to 5.90 resistance basis May on supply side concerns. If Texas and Oklahoma saw hard damage- why not number one wheat producer Kansas. The freeze hit harder there. Time will tell. May wheat continues to have support at 5.00 and resistance 5.60.