Gold weakens further today but after all it's still staying in range of 921.1 and 945.5. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, we're still expecting that fall from 1007.7 to be contained by mentioned 892 support. A break above 945.50 resistance, which will confirm a small head and shoulder bottom pattern, will confirm this case and bring strong rally to retest 1007.7 first and then 1033.9 high. However, note that on the downside, sustained break of 892 will be the first signal that whole rally from 681 has made a top and will turn short term outlook bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, with 892 support still intact, there is no change in the bullish case. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, however, below 892 will open up a few short term bearish scenarios that should at least bring deeper for to 801.5 cluster support or below before resuming the long term up trend.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart