Comex Gold (GC)

Intraday bias in gold remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1418.8 short term top. Also, choppy look of such rise from 1309.1 suggests that it should be corrective in nature. That is, it's possibly the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 1432.5. Sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1400.2) will pave the way to deeper decline to test 1309.1 support. On the upside, decisive break of 1432.5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect Gold to have another fall soon even in case of further rise.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that price actions from 1432.5 are merely consolidation in the larger rally. Also, gold is still staying comfortably inside the long term rising channel. 1432.5 might not be the important top yet. Nevertheless, even in case of another high above 1432.6, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as gold approaches two important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. On the downside, sustained break of 1309.1 support is now an important signal of medium term reversal and should bring sizeable pull back towards 1044.5/1227.5 support zone.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

width=479

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

width=480