Comex Gold (GC)

Outlook in gold remain unchanged. While recovery from 1155.6 might still continue, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1203.9 resistance and bring resumption of the whole fall from 1266.5. Break of 1155.6 will target 1124.3 support next. However, above 1203.9 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed. In such case, lengthier consolidation would be seen before decline from 1266.5 resumes.

In the bigger picture, gold's rally from 1044.5 should have completed at 1266.5. More importantly, whole medium term rise from 681 might have finished with five waves up too, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 1197.6) affirms this case. Deeper correction should now be seen to 1044.5 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 681 to 1266.5 at 1042.8) at least. After all, even in case of strong rebound, we'd maintain that risk remains heavily on the downside as long as 1266.5 high holds.