Comex Gold (GC)

Outlook in Gold remains unchanged as Gold can't break through 1203.9 resistance clearly yet. Fall from 1266.5 is expected to resume sooner rather than later. Below 1176.7 minor will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1155.6 first. Break there will confirm fall resumption to 1124.3 support next. However, sustained trading above 1203.9 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed. In such case, lengthier consolidation would be seen before decline from 1266.5 resumes.

In the bigger picture, gold's rally from 1044.5 should have completed at 1266.5. More importantly, whole medium term rise from 681 might have finished with five waves up too, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 1197.6) affirms this case. Deeper correction should now be seen to 1044.5 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 681 to 1266.5 at 1042.8) at least. After all, even in case of strong rebound, we'd maintain that risk remains heavily on the downside as long as 1266.5 high holds.

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