GOLD (Futures): The commodity closed flat on a rejection candle after wiping out its early week gains to end the week at 1,104.08 on Friday. This development suggests that the commodity may be shaping up to weaken further towards the 1,098.23 level, its Mar 12'10 low. On a break through that level, downside risk should increase further towards the 1,088.20 level, its Feb 25'10 low and then the 1.078.29 level, its long term rising trendline. We expect a halt in declines at this level to push the commodity back up again in line with its bullish broader strength. Though not likely at this stage, a break through the mentioned trendlinewill turn focus to the 1.044.20 level, its 2010 low. Alternatively, in order for the commodity to totally off set its current downside pressure, a clean break and close above the 1,137.58 level, its Mar 08'10 high is required to open the door for more upside gains towards the 1,144.88 level, its Mar 03'10 high where a break will aim at the 1,161.88 level, its Feb. 11 high ahead of its psychological level at 1,200 and then the 2009 high at 1.226.33. On the while, though retaining its broader medium term uptrend, it is now being challenged by bear pressure.

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