Gold Fundamental Analysis Feb. 2, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 1.0% 2.3%
Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 373K 377K
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 0.9% -2.5%
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3565K 3554K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
Today's Economic Reports Results
GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% Unexpected Drop
CHF Retail Sales (YoY) 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% Unexpected Drop
CHF SVME PMI 47.3 51.8 49.1 Unexpected Drop
EUR French Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5 48.5
EUR German Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.9 50.9 Above Forecast
EUR Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.7 48.7 Above Forecast
GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 50.1 49.7 Above Forecast
EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1749.46 up over 9.00. and continues to rise trading at the highest level since early December as the U.S. dollar came under pressure amid hopes for an imminent debt restructuring agreement for Greece. Gold continues to be a safe haven trade. Regardless of the deal in Greece and the bond sale in Portugal today, investors are spooked.
The USD dropped after employment and manufacturing reports had lackluster results. The ADP report showed employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 170,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from November to December was revised down to 292,000 from the initially reported 325,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 152,000 in January.
The US ISM manufacturing index was slightly lower than expected, rising to 54.1 from 53.1. The details were stronger with the new orders index rising again to the highest level since April last year and the export orders index rising for the third month in a row
Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3