Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

13:30     USD       Trade Balance                                   -48.4B                   -47.8B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                           

 14:55    USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index     74.3                       75.0

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

 17:30    USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.                                                                                                

19:00     USD       Federal Budget Balance                                                -65.2B                   -86.0B  

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Gold
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold  rose $17.60, or 1%, to $1,748.90 an ounce on the Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The news that Greek officials had reached the austerity deal on which new loan funds are predicated buoyed the euro and as European central banks decided to continue on a loose monetary-policy path.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key lending rate unchanged for another month, in line with what most analysts have been expecting. Politicians in Spain, France and Italy were hopeful that the ECB would cut rates to offset rising debt burdens and help save them from further ratings downgrades. Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the three countries already in receipt of bailout funds from Brussels, were also keen to see lower rates that would cut their borrowing costs and, in the case of Lisbon and Dublin, prevent the need for further bailouts

Although todays market movement was more about the dollar, gold moved in contrast to the fluctuations in the USD. Today's reports showed that initial jobless claimed dropped lower then forecast giving the USD some strength, but was shortly thereafter followed by positive news on Greece, voiding the upward motion of the greenback.

Thursdays Economic Reports ( actual v. forecast )

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

1.00

 
 
 

-3.00

 
 

KRW

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.25%

 

3.25%

 
 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

4.5%

 

4.0%

 

4.1%

 
 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

0.7%

 

0.8%

 

1.7%

 
 

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-19

 

-22

 

-24

 
 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2%

 

-0.5%

 
 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-7.1B

 

-8.4B

 

-8.9B

 
 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50%

 

0.50%

 
 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 
 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

358K

 

370K

 

373K

 
 

EUR

ECB Press Conference 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3515K

 

3525K

 

3451K

 
 

MXN

Mexican CPI (YoY) 

4.0%

 

4.0%

 

3.8%

 
 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

-0.2%

 
 
 

-0.2%

 
 

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1693.17
1709.38
1719.57
1735.78
1745.97
1762.18
1772.37

Fibonacci
1709.38
1719.47
1725.70
1735.78
1745.87
1752.10
1762.18

Camarilla
1722.49
1724.91
1727.33
1735.78
1732.17
1734.59
1737.01

Woodie's
-
1707.88
1716.55
1734.28
1742.95
1760.68
-

DeMark's
-
-
1740.88
1733.24
1714.48
-
-