Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

 

Gold

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold closed down just under 1% at 1725.30 falling on worries from Greece, as did most of the global markets. The USD was up today on concerns overlooking lackluster economic data on trade balances and consumer confidence. Investors ignored news that the US exchange cut future margin requirements on gold.

It seems like anytime that Fed Reserve Bernanke speaks gold moves. Perhaps it would be best to develop a Fed Trading Strategy.

Investors are concerned with the future of Greece, this maybe the end, as it may not be possible to for Greece to find cuts deep enough to make up for the current increase in deficits as it continues to increase.

The US budget deficit for January came in under budget, almost half of January 2011.

Review of Tuesday's Economic Reports

00:01

 

GBP

 
 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.8% 

 

2.2% 

03:30

 

AUD

 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.00% 

 

4.25% 

03:30

 

AUD

 
 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 
 
 
 

05:00

 

JPY

 
 

Leading Index 

94.3

 

93.8 

 

93.7 

07:45

 

EUR

 
 

French Trade Balance 

-5.0B

 

-5.3B 

 

-4.1B 

08:00

 

TWD

 
 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

0.42B

 

2.10B 

 

2.31B 

11:00

 

EUR

 
 

German Industrial Production

-2.9%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

11:30

 

CLP

 
 

Chilean Trade Balance 

1.98B

 

1.15B 

 

0.39B 

13:30

 

CAD

 
 

Building Permits (MoM) 

11.1%

 

0.8% 

 

-2.6% 

15:00

 

USD

 
 

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 

49.4

 

48.3 

 

47.5 

16:30

 

USD

 
 

4-Week Bill Auction 

0.060%

 
 
 

0.050%

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1677.00
1690.65
1706.30
1719.95
1735.60
1749.25
1764.90

Fibonacci
1690.65
1701.84
1708.76
1719.95
1731.14
1738.06
1749.25

Camarilla
1713.89
1716.58
1719.26
1719.95
1724.64
1727.32
1730.01

Woodie's
-
1691.15
1707.30
1720.45
1736.60
1749.75
-

DeMark's
-
-
1727.78
1716.04
1698.48
-
-