Economic Events: (GMT)

07:00     EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate                                                6.1                          5.9         

 The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.    

08:15     CHF        Employment Level                                                                          4.03M                   4.02M  

 The Employment Level measures the number of people employed during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.            

 Tent      CHF       SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman (May 2007 - January 2012) Thomas Jordan is to speak. In January 2010 his title changed from Board Member to Vice Chairman. As a member of the SNB's Governing Board, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Swiss franc. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.                                                     

 11:00    GBP      CBI Distributive Trades Survey                                                 -14                          -22         

 The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease. 

 Tent      EUR       German CPI (MoM)                                                                     0.5%                      -0.4%    

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

13:30     USD      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                        0.0%                      2.2%

13:30     USD      Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                                 -0.8%                     3.0%

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 15:00    USD      CB Consumer Confidence                                                         63.0                        61.1

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

 

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

width=150Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading slightly down at 1774.75, after falling to 1763.75, as the euro retreated on fears of rising energy costs and finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations over the weekend demanded the currency bloc to boost its firewall to contain its debt crisis. Monday the USD was supported by a jump in pending house sales and a weakening euro, as profit taking was seen all around.

On Thursday last week, gold settled at its highest level since Nov. 11, supported by a lower U.S. dollar.

Gold

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 28, 2012, Forecast

Today's economic releases actual v. forecast

EUR

 
 
 

French PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.5%

 

1.8%

 

1.5%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Private Loans (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.2%

 

1.0%

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Business Confidence 

91.5

 

92.0

 

92.1

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1748.90
1755.35
1765.70
1772.15
1782.50
1788.95
1799.30

Fibonacci
1755.35
1761.77
1765.73
1772.15
1778.57
1782.53
1788.95

Camarilla
1771.43
1772.97
1774.51
1772.15
1777.59
1779.13
1780.67

Woodie's
-
1756.33
1767.65
1773.13
1784.45
1789.93
-

DeMark's
-
-
1785.73
1773.76
1768.93
-
-