Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements-including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold's role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

09:30     GBP      Industrial Production (MoM)                                                    0.2%                      -0.6%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production (MoM)                                          0.3%                      -0.2%

Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:30     GBP       Trade Balance                                                                                 -8.4B                      -8.6B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.                          

 12:00    GBP       Interest Rate Decision                                                                 0.50%                    0.50%   

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.     

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                                                                   1.00%                    1.00%

13:30     EUR        ECB Press Conference                                

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.     

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    388K                      367K                     

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3525K                    3437K     

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012, Forecast

Gold is trading down a strong a day on Tuesday and as the euro pared gains, pushing the U.S. dollar marginally higher against major currencies.

Gold declined $16.75, or 0.97%, to $1,731.95 an ounce. Prices had earlier ranged between small gains and losses, trading as high as $1,754.80 an ounce and as low as $1,729.10 

News of a possible Greek settlement, with the ECB agreeing to accept a haircut on its holding of Greek bonds, there now seems to be deal close at foot. The pair are likely to find support at USD1,712.65 and short-term resistance at USD1,765.85. Thursday, will be about Greece and the USD employment data. Watch gold closely.

Wednesday's economic reports ( actual )

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.40%

 
 
 

1.70% 

 
 

JPY

Economy Watchers Current Index 

44.1

 

47.5 

 

47.0 

 
 

CHF

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 
 

EUR

German Trade Balance 

13.9B

 

14.1B 

 

14.9B 

 
 

EUR

French Government Budget Balance 

-90.8B

 

-90.8B 

 

-97.2B 

 
 

EUR

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-6.9%

 

-6.7% 

 

-7.0% 

 
 

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1695.33
1710.42
1721.93
1737.02
1748.53
1763.62
1775.13

Fibonacci
1710.42
1720.58
1726.86
1737.02
1747.18
1753.46
1763.62

Camarilla
1726.14
1728.57
1731.01
1737.02
1735.89
1738.33
1740.77

Woodie's
-
1709.53
1720.15
1736.13
1746.75
1762.73
-

DeMark's
-
-
1742.78
1734.14
1716.18
-
-