Gold, Silver, Oil Price Forecast
The Overall Technicals Comex Gold (GC)
Gold dropped to as low as 1572.0 last week. The break of 1613, the Key support, confirmed resumption of fall from 1792.7.
Some consolidations could be seen early this week, near term outlook is Bearish as long as 1623.6 resistance holds.
Current decline is expected to extend towards 1523.9 support and possibly lower.
The Big Picture: price actions from the 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. Fall from 1792.7 is viewed as 1 of the falling legs inside the pattern, and should head back to 1478.3/1577.4 Support Zone. I expect strong support at the 1478.3-1577.4 Support Zone to contain any Southside to finish the consolidation and bring on the up-trend resumption to another high above 1923.7 eventually.
On the upside: a break of 1627.3, the Key resistance, will augur that fall from 1792.7 has finished, and turn focus back to this resistance instead.
The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term Bullish outlook in Gold, though some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psych level in the long run. Stay tuned...
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's fall extended last week to as low as 28.415. Silver is losing some Southside momentum, with mild Bullish convergence condition in 4 hs MACD, but there is no sign of bottoming yet.
Current fall should extend to 26.145 support and lower. But, a move above 4 hrs 55 EMA, now at 29.732, will bring on consolidations 1st. However, in that case, the Northside should be limited to below 31.09 support turned resistance and bring on another decline.
The Big Picture: the price actions from 26.15 should be a consolidation pattern, and has completed with 3 waves to 37.48. Fall from there is treated as resumption of the medium term decline from 49.82, the high and should extend through 26.145 to 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 and below. But , a clear break of 31.03, the resistance, will dampen this POV, and turn focus back to 37.48 instead.
The Long Term Picture: the main question remains on if 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is favoring the latter. I would prefer to see clear break of 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm this. Barring that, the price actions from 49.82 could just be developing into a sideway pattern. Stay tuned...
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil's fall from 105.98 extended further to 95.17 last week. While some consolidations could be seen initially this week, my near term outlook is cautiously Bearish as long as 100.68 support turned resistance holds.
The fall should extend to 92.52, the support near term 50% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 92.75, and below. Though, I do see support from 61.8% retracement at 88.55 on initial attempt to bring on a recovery.
The Big Picture: the price actions from 114.84 are developing into a 3 wave consolidation pattern. And, the 3rd leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall can eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. We likely will see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. I will be looking for reversal signal below 74.95.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned...
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Nat Gas' rebound from 1.902 continued last week, but started to lose upside momentum with mild Bearish divergence condition in 4 hrs MACD. We may see more rallying in here, but the Northside will likely be limited by 2.742 resistance and bring on a pull back. A break below 2.276, the minor support, will turn the bias back to the Southside to retest the 1.902 low.
The Big Picture: Bullish convergence condition in daily MACD suggests that fall from 4.983 completed at 1.902 and stronger rebound would be seen. Such rebound could reach as high as 38.2% retracement of 4.983 to 1.902 at 3.079. But, there needs to be a clear break of 3.255, the support turned resistance, to indicate completion of the down trend from 6.108. Barring that, I am looking for another low below 1.902 eventually.
The Long Term Picture: the down trend from 13.694, the Y 2008 high, is still in progress, so is that from 15.78, the Y 2005 high. Monthly MACD's stay below the signal line suggest that the Southside momentum is increasing. The Y 2002 low of 1.96 is breached and some rebound should be seen, and another down trend extension will drive Nat Gas to the Y 1999 low of 1.62 IMO. Stay tuned...
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.