The Overall Technicals

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold rose to 1628.6 last week and the break of 1625.7 is taken as the 1st signal of Northside breakout from recent trading range.

The initial bias is on the Northside this week for a test of the resistance at 1642.4. A break there will augurs that fall from 1792.7 has completed and rebound form 1526.7 is resuming for a run to 1700, the psych mark and higher. It is important to stay cautious in here though, as a break of 1600.8, the minor support, will turn bias Neutral again and could extend the sideway pattern.

The Big Picture: the price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation has finished, and more range trading could be seen. Any downside of a falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring on a rebound. A clear break of 1792.7, the Key resistance, is needed to be the 1st signal of the up-trend resumption. Barring that, the consolidation will extend.

The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3, the Key support intact, there is no change in the long term Bullish outlook for Gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I see an eventual break of 2000, the psych mark in the long run. Stay tuned...

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Comex Silver (SI)

Silver's sideway trading continued last week, the outlook is unchanged, more consolidative trading could be seen in near term.

On the Downside: a break of 26.07 confirms resumption of the decline from 37.48 and should target next long term fibo level at 24.22.

On the Upside: a break above 28.445 will bring another rally to 29.856 resistance instead.

The Big Picture: price actions from 26.15 should be a consolidation pattern only. At this point, I am slightly favoring the case that such consolidation is finished at 37.48. And, fall from 37.48 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 and below. But, a break of 29.856 suggests 1 more rising leg before consolidation from 26.15 completes.

The Long Term Picture: the Big Q is still whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is favoring the latter. Though, I would prefer to see sustained break of 61.8% fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm. Barring that, Silver's price actions from 49.82 could be developing into a sideway pattern. Stay tuned...

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Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil formed a short term top at 92.94 and faded, but the near term outlook remains Bullish as long as the support holds at 83.65.

As noted: the decline from 110.55 should have finished at 77.28. Current rebound from there should extend to 61.8% fibo retracement at 97.84 and above.

The Pig Picture: price actions from 114.84 are viewed as a 3 wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the 3rd leg. Such decline could have finished earlier than we expected at 77.28. Sustained trading above 90, the psych mark will bring stronger rally towards 114.83, the Key resistance mark. And a clear break there marks the resumption of the up-trend from 33.2.

On the Downside: another fall cannot be ruled out, but if that be the case, strong support should be seen below 74.95 and above 61.8% fibo retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise.

The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned...

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Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Nat Gas rose to 3.196 last week before forming a temporary top and fading. More consolidations could be seen 1st. But any Southside of retreat should be contained by 2.72 support and bring on another rise. A move above 3.196 will extend recent rally to 50% fibo retracement of 4.983 to 1.902 at 3.443.

The Big Picture: more sign of medium term reversal was seen with weekly MACD turned positive while 55 weeks EMA was broken. I would like to see a sustained break of 3.255 resistance to confirm. In that case fall from 6.108 should be completed, and further rebound should be seen at least for a test of 4.983, the Key resistance mark. But, failure to sustain above 3.255 and reversal from there will extend the fall from 6.108 to a new low below 1.902.

The Long Term Picture: as long as resistance at 3.255 holds, whole down trend from 13.694, Y 2008 high is still in progress, so is that from 15.78, the Y 2005 high. Another fall could be seen to the Y 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption. But, a clear break of 3.255 will be an important sign of long term bottoming. Stay tuned...

 Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.