Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's fall was contained above 1547.6 last week and recovered; it is bound inside a range of 1547.6/1625.7.

Initial bias is Neutral this week for some more sideway trading IMO

On the downside: break of 1547.6 will possibly bring a new low below 1526.7, but be cautious for reversal signal again as it approaches the 1500 psych mark.

On the upside: a break above 1625.7 targets a test on 1642.4, the Key resistance.

The Big Picture: Golds price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished yet, and more range trading could be seen. The downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4, the support zone, and bring on a rebound, and a break of 1792.7, the Key resistance, is needed to be the 1st signal of the up-trend resumption. Barring that the consolidation extends.

The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold, though some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psych mark in the long run. Stay tuned...

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart


Comex Silver (SI)

Silver's decline was contained above 26.07 and recovered last week, and is bound inside a range of 26.07/28.445.

Initial bias is Neutral this week for some more consolidation.

On the downside: a break of 26.07 confirms resumption of the decline from 37.48, and should target the next long term fibo mark at 24.22.

On the upside: a move above 28.445 will bring on a rally to 29.856, the Key resistance IMO.

The Big Picture Silver's price actions from 26.15 should be a consolidation pattern only. At this point, I slightly favoring the case that the consolidation finished at 37.48, and the fall from 37.48 should extend to 61.8% fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 and below. But a break of 29.856 suggests one more rising leg before consolidation from 26.15 finishes.

The Long Term Picture: the Big Q remains on whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. The current development favors the latter case. But, I prefer to see sustained break of 61.8% fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm that.

Barring that, price actions from 49.82 could just be forming up a sideway pattern. Stay tuned...

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart


Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil drew some support from 4 hrs 55 EMA and recovered last week. The upside is limited to below the 88.98 mark IMO.

Initial bias remains Neutral this week and some more sideway trading could be seen. I slightly favor the case that fall from 110.55 is finished at 77.28. So, the downside of the retreat should be contained above 77.28 and bring another rise. A move above 88.98 targets 90, the psych mark.

The Big Picture: Crude Oil's price actions from 114.84 are viewed as a 3 wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 the 3rd leg. Such a decline could have finished earlier than expected at 77.28. Sustained trading above 90, the psych mark, will bring stronger rally towards 114.83, the Key resistance mark. And break there signals the resumption of the up-trend from 33.2.

On the downside: another fall cannot be ruled out in here. But, in that case, strong support should be seen below 74.95 and above 61.8% the fibo retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise.

The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned...

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart


Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.