Analyst Paul Ebeling of takes a look at Gold, Silver and Oil Prices SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (ETF), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) NYSE:USO

The Overall Fundamentals
Last week was quiet with light economic calendar despite a number of meetings among policymakers. The EU and the Ecofin meetings held earlier in the week failed to any new insight to the sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone although the ESM was officially launched last Monday.
The World Bank and the IMF revised lower global economic forecasts for this year and Y 2013 as the Chinese slowdown will probably be more serious than thought.
Precious Metals
Gold prices held just under 1,800, the market does not have many catalysts to push it through that mark, and action this week could be similar to last week’s
Prices were down on the week. The most-active Dec Gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at 1,759.70, down 1.19% on the week. Dec Silver settled at 33.669, down 2.61% on the week


Crude Oil
Crude oil gained last week especially driven by geopolitical tensions between Turkey and Syria. The latest headline is that Turkish civilian flights are banned in Syria. The issue affects Crude Oil supply to European countries more, thus boosting Brent Crude more than WTI Crude. The supply side problem is exacerbated by cargo delays in the North Sea. The WTI-Brent spread widened to as much as 23.7 at close last Thursday.
Natural Gas
The Doe-EIA reported that Nat Gas inventory increased +72 bcf to 3725 bcf in the week ended 5 October. Stocks were +236 bcf higher than the same period last year and +269 bcf above the 5-yr average of 3456 bcf.
US Rig Count: Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) reported that the number of gas rigs fell -15 units to 437 in the week ended October 12. Oil rigs increased +13 units to 1 411 and miscellaneous rigs stayed unchanged at 2 units and the total number of rigs slid -2 units to 1 835. Directionally oriented combined Oil, Gas, and Miscellaneous rigs stayed at 194 units while horizontal rigs decreased -20 units to 1 112 and vertical rigs rose +18 units to 529 during the week.
The Overall Technicals
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold’s correction from 1798.1 continued last week, more decline may seen, but as long as 1720, the minor support holds, current rise is expected to continue. A clear break of 1792.7/1804.4, the resistance zone, will have larger Bullish implications and showthe way to 1923.7, the historical high. But, a  break of 1720 will indicate near term reversal and will turn outlook Bearish for 1674, the Key support.

The Big Picture: price actions from 1923.7, the high, are seen as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that this consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. The downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4, the support zone, and bring rebound. A clear break of 1792.7/1804.4, the resistance zone, augurs that the long term up-trend is resuming for a new high above 1923.7 and higher.

The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3 the Key support intact, there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold. More medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, but, I  see a break of 2000, the psych mark sooner or later. Stay tuned…

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver (SI)

The consolidation from 35.445 continued last week, but a deeper pull back might still be seen, another rise is seen to continue as long as 32.72, the Key support holds. A break above 35.445 targets 37.58, the Key resistance next. Be cautious and on the lookout for a reversal signal at it approaches 37.58. A break of 32.72 will be the 1st sign of near term reversal and will turn focus back to support at 30.195.

The Big Picture: as long as the resistance at 37.58 holds, the price actions from 26.105 are seen as a consolidation pattern, that means, the down trend from 49.82 high not finished, and an new low below 26.105 is a possibility. But, a clear break of 37.58 dampens this Bearish situation, and could bring on a strong run back to 49.82, the historic high.

The Long Term Picture: The Big Q remains, that is whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term Top. With 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could eventually turn out to be just consolidations, and a clear break of the resistance at 37.58 increases the odds of a new high above 49.82. Stay tuned…

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil could not stay above the minor resistance at 93.33, and so near term outlook remains unchanged.

The fall from 100.42 looks like it will  continue for 61.8% Fibo retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and below. If that happens I expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain any downside. But, a clear break of 93.33 will turn the bias to the Northside for a test the resistance at 100.42.

The Big Picture: what I see in here suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. The fall from 100.42 is likely the 5th and the last leg of the consolidation. That said, the Southside should be contained above 77.28 and bring on  an upside breakout sooner or later. A break of 110.55 suggests that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move above 114.83.

The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart


Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.



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