SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (ETF), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) NYSE:USO
The Overall Fundamentals Gold and Silver Gold finished higher by 1.3% at 1682.60 oz, and Silver futures gained 2.4% to finish at 32.79 oz. The Gold market was unable to hold onto a move to new high ground early in the session and faded to negative territory by the close. A stronger USD and a noticeable retreat from Monday's risk on attitude may have pulled support from the market later in the day. The Gold market lagged other commodities as they were able to hold into positive territory throughout the session. A Key event for Gold is still on the horizon, as Slovakia's vote on expanding the EuroZone rescue fund was postponed until Thursday. The Silver market made it through several periods of choppy and 2 sided trading during the session, with prices able to grind out a modest gain by afternoon trading. Stronger equity markets helped to underpin recent gains, but strength in the Dollar may have limited Silver's ability to recover back to new highs for the move. The market stayed within the recent trading range but was on course to post the highest closing price since September 22 nd. Crude Oil Crude Oil futures ended their 5 session rally today after posting modest declines of 0.3% to end at 85.57 bbl. Trade in Crude Oil was quiet Wednesday as prices moved sideways around the flat line ahead of tomorrow's inventory data. Nov Crude Oil traded higher throughout the early morning hours, making their high of the session ahead of the US trading session. Early gains came on the back of a sharp decline in the USD and a rally across most risk assets. Some traders indicated that hopes for a Slovakian vote to expand the EFSF bailout package was seen as a positive that bolstered risk appetites. It is possible that some of the early gains in Crude Oil were tempered by a pair of Global Crude Oil demand estimates from the IEA and EIA this morning that were revised lower. The EIA indicated that they continued to see downside risks in the Global economy, and that is a factor that could put added downside pressure on Crude Oil prices. But, the gains on Wall Street and other commodity markets kept the market support throughout the session on Wednesday.
The Overall Technicals w/Support and Resistance marks Gold
Yesterday's Bearish wave ebbed around 1653.00 zone as seen on the secondary image of the 4-H interval.
On graph, you can see how trading dipped below TEMA 20; while the structure of the last 4-H candlesticks looks corrective inside the long black candlestick pattern.
Therefore, I look forward to seeing more downside actions based on the wider daily picture of the Double Top formation; noting that a break of 1653.00 this time will likely bring on a panic sell-off. But, areas of 1702.00 should protect the awaited bearishness.
The trading range for Wednesday is among the Key support at 1575.00 and Key resistance now at 1752.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the Northside, targeting 1945.00 oz as long as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1653.00, 1635.00, 1615.00, 1590.00, 1575.00
Resistance: 1673.00, 1687.00, 1695.00, 1702.00, 1715.00
Recommendation Based on the chart and explanations above my opinion now is, selling Gold below 1653.00 and targeting 1575.00 and placing at Stop Loss above 1702.00 is likely prudent. Stay tuned...
The precious White metal is stable below the 20-Day Simple Moving Average, and also below 33.15-65, which completed the continuation technical structure, where this structure remains valid with stability below these levels.
The Stochastic is within over bought areas, which could also add more confirmations to the Bearish continuation structure.
So, I now expect the Southside movement to remain valid as long as Silver is stable below 33.65 oz.
The trading range for today is among the Key support at 30.30, and Key resistance now at 34.40.
The short-term trend is to the Southside targeting 26.65 as long as 48.50 remains intact.
Support: 31.85, 31.30, 31.05, 30.65, 30.30
Resistance: 32.95, 33.15, 33.65, 34.00, 34.40
Recommendation Based on the chart below, and explanations above, I recommend selling Silver around 32.85 and take profit in stages at; 30.85 and 29.05, and place a Stop Loss with daily closing above 33.70 may be prudent. Stay tuned...
Crude Oil Crude Oil fluctuated heavily Tuesday, but it ended the day above the 50-Day SMA again, but below the main descending resistance, while Stochastic is entering overbought territory. An upside breakout over daily basis above the descending resistance may signal a Bullish rally targeting initially 90.00 , but for now I will remain Neutral, until a clear continuation or reversal signals occur.
The trading range for the day is among the major support at 82.00 and the major resistance at 88.50.
The short-term trend is to the Southside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.
Support: 84.50, 83.95, 83.30, 82.75, 81.70
Resistance: 86.00, 86.60, 87.40, 88.00, 89.00
Recommendation Based on the chart below, and explanations above again I recommend staying aside awaiting more confirmations. Stay tuned...
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.