Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
- Yesterday's Forex Video Tchnical Update with gold and silver noted a possible bearish continuation after the current corrective rally.
- The corrective rally is not over for gold. We are now at 61.8% retracement, and the RSI in the 1H chart continues to show bearish divergence. The RSI in the 4H chart remains below 60.
- So even though this rally extended, it is well within the context of a correction, waiting for topping and a bearish kick to start the bearish continuation scenario.
- If the market breaks above 1378 and the declining resistance seen in the 4H chart, the bearish scenario is in trouble.
- For the bearish scenario to reopen, we need to break below below at least 1365, and the rising channel seen in the 1H chart. Then upon a break below 1355, we are targeting 1330 area.
- Silver has been a bit more reluctant to continue south.
- Unlike gold, silver extended this rally to 78.6% retracement of the latest downswing. (gold was at 61.8%).
- The price action also break above a declining trendline seen in the 4H chart.
- Also, the 4H RSI in silver broke above 60.
- Nonetheless, price action has stalled int he US session, and might reverse. With a close in the 1H chart below 29.07, we should see a decline towards 28.70 area. A break below that targets 28.00.
- The upside is a bullish continuation towards 29.80 - 30.00. This is a previous high and 61.8% retracement of the entire downswing since the start of 2011.
Are the precious metal plays going to be less attractive this year? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist