February gold hit a fresh six-month low of $1,523.90 per ounce overnight. Gold has been under intense pressure since it closed at $1,741.80 per ounce Dec. 7.
We believe this has been driven by the weak Euro/strong dollar and year-end profit-taking, Rodman & Renshaw analyst Wayne Atwell wrote in a note to clients.
The Euro sank to a new 11-month low overnight on renewed European Union debt concerns. There are no new developments on the European Union (EU) front, but there are concerns it will be in the headlines early next year.
Meanwhile, gold is down materially over the past three weeks. However, it is still up 9.9 percent during 2011 and the analyst believes money managers and private investors are taking profits in one of the few investments that is up this year.
Gold has been up 11 years in a row, one of the strongest performances by an asset class in modern investing history.
Atwell has said this performance has been driven by concern about the crisis in the EU and the future of the Euro, large deficits being run up by the US government, commodity inflation driven by rapid economic growth in the developing world, and low interest rates.
We believe gold could remain under pressure for several more days, possibly breaking below $1,500 per ounce. However, early next year we look for gold to regain its footing and begin to recover, says Atwell.
Atwell expects gold to be up again in 2012 and for it to peak within the next 18 to 24 months in the $2,300-2,400 per ounce range.
Gold is currently trading up by 1.43 percent at 1,562.9 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the yellow metal fell to a three-month low Thursday on a strong dollar and eurozone concerns.