Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rebounded further to as high as 1133.3 last week but subsequent sharp fall dampened the bullish view and mixed up the outlook. We'll stay neutral for the moment and wait for confirmation on whether rise from 1044.5 is finished. On the downside, break of 1097.3 will complete a head and should top reversal pattern (ls: 1131.5, h: 1145.8, rs: 1133.3) and will suggest that rise from 1044.5 is completed. This will also argue that whole correction from 1227.5 is still in progress. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to retest 1044.5 low first. On the upside, above 1133.3 will suggest that rise from 1044.5 is still in progress. Break of 1145.8 will target a test on 1163 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. Question is on whether such correction is finished. As long as 1097.3 support holds, we'd favor the bullish case that correction from 1227.5 is completed and rise from 1044.5 is resuming larger up trend to another high above 1227.5. On the downside, however, break of 1097.3 will shift favor to the case that correction from 1227.5 is not completed and fall from 1145.8 would be developing into the third wave of such correction for another low below 1044.5 before longer term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
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