CAUTIOUS REPORT........ This week held to its monthly pattern of rallying from its low to start the month into the onset of the monthly USDA crop report on fear the report could unveil bullish news. We have rallied 9 of the last 10 months with some rallies cautiously small to as much as $.50 or better. We entered the year with tight ending stocks. Then a overly wet planting season with flooding and one of the driest and hottest July on record while crops matured. Every monthly report seemed to bring some level of fear of either lower ending stocks and smaller production. This brought on short covering and speculative buying ahead of each report's release. It just simply pays to enter each month and find a dip to get long and if conservative take profits before the reports releases as reports can unveil a surprise that robs long profits quickly. I still see the Wednesday crop report as a yawner with no real surprises. Yields on corn for October were neutral to lower than expectations and beans slightly better. The states with the lowest quality and yields have the most yet to be harvested coming in November, and making the next month's crop report potentially bullish , but the November report, a quiet neutral report. Ending stocks have been the card that the USDA has used the last two reports to offset lower production by cutting feed usage and exports keeping the trade from the reality were running out of corn and beans. There's talk the government will use the big picture perception again to adjust lower feed usage and exports. Should they go by the book and use just the October adjustment numbers for the November report, they would then cut ending stocks. Reasons are the October cattle on feed report showed a surge in cattle placed on feedlots to be fattened on corn. Weekly export sales reports were sharply higher weekly on corn and beans exports over the September average. Once the report is out and digested look for another correction in prices as demand has slowed on the recent price increases with key player China and other importers buying needs on price corrections and backing off on rallies. We've open lower seven consecutive Mondays, so should luck prevail and a lower open enters Monday, it might be a last opportunity to buy and catch at least a small price rise prior the report and maybe even a rally after the report's release for those who challenge report day. Technicals read like this. December corn support is 6.30 then 6.22. Resistance 6.66 then 6.78. November bean support 11.85. Resistance 12.30 then 12.48. December wheat support is 6.10. Resistance 6.70.
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