REPORT DAY THOUGHTS....... Our first report Monday came with our 10 AM Central Time weekly export inspections report. Corn and wheat came in lower as importers back way ahead of Wednesday's big 7:30 AM Central Time USDA monthly crop report. Wheat expected to be shipped near term came in at 10.1 million bushels, down from 20.8 the week prior and four-week average of 18. Corn inspections were 22.1 million bushels versus 31 the week prior and four week average of 29. But beans were more active as importers see the US crop as the sole port of origin in the world to buy freshly harvested beans until South American crops come in early next year, so needs now, trump the crop report uncertainty. Beans inspected were 49.1 million bushels versus 49.5 the week prior and four-week average of 30. Key world player China was in for 40 versus the seven prior weeks in order 36 million bushels, 32.2, 4.6, 15.6, 4.6, 2.5, and 6.7. Sales of beans have really picked up as expected seasonally, but they're not shockingly strong as many had hoped. We're not seeing overbooking as a hedge against weather problems in exporting country competitors. La Niña was expected to bring a hot dry start to South America's planting and early growing season but timely rains have beans off to a good start. This has China buying more beans for early spring delivery out of Brazil, anticipating a good crop season. Whether needs to be watched closely as a change to dryer, shifts demand here quickly. Monday's 3 PM crop progress report put the corn harvest at 87% complete. Lagers were Ohio, 34%, Pennsylvania 57 and Indiana 74%. These states were among the nation's lowest quality ratings and the results will show up on the final crop record in January as December does not have a production update. Bean harvest is about at 92% and has no effect on pricing now. The winter wheat crop improved on recent rains coming in at 49% in good to excellent condition up 3% from the week prior and 4% over last year. Note, though there's been improvement , It's one of the lowest ratings in 22 years. Rainfall this week looks to further raise the condition especially in the driest areas of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. We have a long way to go on winter wheat and it's clearly going dormant late month in a weak state but yields and quality are made and lost in March through May after dormancy breaks and the growing season finishes. We're still in the weed stage when traders don't pay much attention to quality. Okay, next is the monthly USDA crop report due out at 7:30 AM Central Time Wednesday, November 9. Pre-report trade estimates by the major brokerage and private analytical firms read like this. They guess corn production at 12.391 billion bushels, 42 million bushels lower than last month's report. The range of guesses are 12.1 to 12.5 billion bushels. Anything at the high end and corn opens 10 to 15 cents lower. The low end, we open 8 to 14 higher with 6.72 as first chart resistance basis December futures. Of course, traders always fear a surprise and that can make report day wild. Should production come in under 12 b.b. we move quickly to 6.84. Then, possibly 7.04. If this report is a yawner or just mildly friendly, sell a higher open. As corn has priced in $.30 over last week's low coming into the report and void of a surprise should lead to profit-taking off a higher open. It's hard to get a report day rally to hold, as cuts in production have been offset by the government cutting feed usage , exports and ethanol usage. Ending stocks remain the report day wildcard. Bean production is pegged at 3.060 billion bushels unchanged from last month and a range of guesses from 2.975 to 3.110. With ending stocks last month at 160 m.b. a 100 m.b. increase or decrease can be attached to a new total and percentage wise gives us a extreme sharp move one way or the other. If we come in at 3.060 beans will begin a move to 11.60 basis January futures. Anything under the low end of estimates and 12.50 is first stop.
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