PRODUCTION NEXT

Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday,  almost ignored as the market gets ready for the Wednesday 7:30 am Central Time U.S.D.A. crop report.

Let's review them anyway, so we are on top of demand fundamentals.  Lowly wheat inspections were 20.4 million bushels inspected for near-term export versus 19 the week prior; 14 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.2 m.b.  Too much wheat in inventory at 981 m.b. to move off weak demand numbers like that.  Demand remains a neutral force for pricing. 

Corn inspections were 34 m.b., versus 42 the week prior;  43 a year ago; and four-week average of 31 m.b. year-to-date inspections are up 20 m.b.  I like the increase on the four-week average as we continue to see an increasing export market the last four weeks as Asian markets pick up buying as local neighbor China exits the export market.  Keep in mind, exports are always down the week of U.S.D.A. reports as importers await fresh statistics for their near and long-term marketing strategies.

Bean inspections were 30.9 m.b., versus 40.4 the week prior; 31.0 a year ago; and four-week average of 38 m.b.  Of the total, China was in for 23.6 m.b., the second highest weekly purchase of the last six weeks.  It's a good number on a crop report week.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, March 9, 2010, the U.S.D.A. releases its monthly crop report with final 2009 production numbers for corn and beans with adjustments to ending-stocks of all the grain markets. 

On the PFGBest.com web site, you can pull up my last Friday's report in which I give price projections that could occur for either a bullish or bearish report.  But, unless there is a surprise outside the average and range of industry expectations, we look to come in Thursday, the day after, and say what report?  The market will quickly forget it, refocus on outside markets for daily direction and begin to get ready for the big report on March 31, when the government survey of farmers tells us how many acres of each grain farmers intend to plant.  The March 31 report is four times more important than Wednesday, March 10 report.