Just a note, last Friday on our PFG Website, the Friday Grain Report had only half the report posted. On Monday, we added the rest of corn and all of the bean research. If you have not yet revisited the report, do so now. When on the grain research page , you can scale down and read Friday's after this report's review.
Monday's weekly export inspection report came out telling how much of each grain was inspected for near-term export and becomes a near-term gauge of demand. Wheat inspections were 19 million bushels versus 9 the week prior; and weak four-week average of 16.2 m.b. Since you need 30 m.b. or more weekly to be friendly and 45 m.b. or more to be price bullish, ignore it. Corn inspections were 41 m.b.; versus 36.5 the week prior; 30 a year ago; and four-week average of 35.7. A lot of good Asian Business for us as China, who normally exports to surrounding Asian neighbors, keeps more corn home. China's drought has the government moving corn and other feed grains into dry regions from reserves. This looks to lead to eventually U.S. purchases by China. I look for corn demand to continue to build into fall's harvest.
Soybean inspections were 32 m.b.; up barely from last week's 31; and just under our four-week average of 34.2 m.b. We are in our seasonal slow down for U.S. bean exports as China and other countries turn to South America to fill new crop needs. Though old crop sales of U.S. beans are slow now, new crop season sales for September 1 on out delivery are very strong. Overall, export demand remains on a record pace for 2010.
Technicals on wheat show major support at 4.72 and key resistance at 5.00 basis May futures.
In the big picture, buy on a close over 5.00 as it may be what triggers a large trend-following funds short-covering rally.
Corn basis may continue to have support at 3.60 and resistance at 3.74. I gave this resistance last week for this week and we hit it Monday and flirted with it today befor profit taking set in . May bean support is 9.60; then 9.30 with key resistance at 9.75. I gave 9.75 as our key resistance for this week and it was our high Monday with 9.764 our high today befor profit taking set in late. The rest of the week looks to continue to see month-end and pre-crop report positioning where bulls take profits off resistance and bears take profits near support on breaks. Pre-report acreage estimates should all be out by Friday, giving us a look at brokerage house estimates prior the March 31 planted acreage report. Market action is now all off the pre-report gossip with jerky moves as private non brokerage house estimates hit the news wires .
For those who want to attend may Wednesday, 2 pm Central Time Web Grain talk can get a password to get in by calling 800-542-1022.