The Grain report

    Thursday's weekly export sales report came out at 7:30 am Central time showing us how much of each grain last week was sold for future shipment end becomes a strong gauge of near-trend, long-term demand.  Wheat was weak as expected at 148 t.m.t. down, 41% from the week prior, as importers seasonally back off and await fresh new crop to come from our winter wheat crop harvest beginning in June.  Soy bean demand softened a little on the week coming in at 175 t.m.t. with China in for 60 t.m.t. of the total, but June exports look robust as China looks to book a record 5.5 million tons at a time when South American sales of beans slow as they build reserves they have never had leaving the U.S. to fill the demand.

    Corn sales were 1.030 m.m.t.  Asian markets were in for 660 t.m.t.; versus the two prior weeks of 475 and 394 with China in for 241 t.m.t. we have now been but over 1 m.m.t. 7 of the last 8 weeks setting up a record corn export year.  With every bushel China sells out of their strategic grain reserve to local livestock feeders to insure the drought there doesn't derail their massive hog and chicken expansion, we expect them to replace that corn with cheaper U.S. corn.  Last week, they sold 800 t.m.t. from reserves and turned around and purchased 500 t.m.t. of U.S. corn.  This past Monday, China offered 1.58 m.m.t. to local feeders and users expecting all to be purchased setting up another round of near-term U.S. purchases.  China's mandate to build strategic corn reserves may be slowed due to drought, but won't be cancelled as they use U.S. reserves to replenish their's.  Expect the June, July and August monthly U.S.D.A. crop reports to raise export projections and lower our ending-stocks of corn and beans for a very long-term friendly price situation.

    Near-term, we have a three-day holiday with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday Monday.  WXRISK.com, the weather site sees next Tuesday to Friday as a wet period in the Midwest grain belt.  With corn 100% planted by Sunday, and beans 75% to 85% planted, we should expect a lower open and trade Tuesday as traders come back and price in the immediate weather.  Use this as a buying opportunity as Tuesday's low should hold near-term and may be the June low as the 11 to 15 day outlook for the period of June 7 to June 12 look to build a heat dome across the Southwest and into the Midwest.  

Once Tuesday prices in the rain in front of us, the market then prices in the longer-term weather and its uncertainty.  Should Tuesday's buy opportunity prevail, then Wednesday's turn-around reversal allows us to enter profit stops from our Tuesday buys.  The wild card or glitch would be we come in Tuesday with crude oil, metals and stocks are all sharply higher, pulling grains along regardless of near-term rains.  Additionally, we could come in with rain falling and all the focus turns to the next system of hotter and drier.  That's possible.

I'm giving you the mindset to be ready to trade.  The month of June is set up to be warmer and drier than normal.  The monthly U.S.D.A. crop report is sure to cut or ending-stocks again and June begins the building of our seasonal weather premium.  It sets up for the last week of June to have a higher price close than the first week with expectations of a similar July. All that being said. Its contingent on current forecasts for a period 2 weeks out. One bend in the jet stream and the heat dome is out and another week of potential rains could enter. So,Iwill forward the new forecast Tuesday befor the opening to those on my e-mail list so you have any changes to review. If you want to be on my e-mail list send me your e-mail address to  thannagan@pfgbest.com .