RAINY TO DRY ?
Well, this week came in as we scripted on last Friday's crop report. We said weather would be wet this week and our return to trading after the holiday, Tuesday, would be met by selling pressure as traders price in the rain makes grain psychology. I also suggested that early week lows could give way to short-covering and/or buying late-week if weather gurus were right on their thoughts the second week of June could turn hot and dry. Well, Thursday saw corn and wheat pull off lows lightly and beans sharply as 4 of the 5 weather models of predicting long-term weather next week as hot and dry after Wednesday. A heat dome will enter the southwestern states Saturday through Tuesday. Some suggest it is going to move into the Midwest grain belt by mid-week and stay through June 15. One weather model says baloney. That Tuesday through Thursday is going to be wet. Regardless of what will actually happen, the market trades fear before fact, so those who sold short our Friday report, made the money and then covered some or all their short profits on fear next week's weather will be harmful to crops. Additionally, after pricing in next week's weather on Monday's opening next week traders won't want to be short and speculators will want to be long prior to Thursday's big U.S.D.A. monthly crop report as the fear is the month of May had enormous corn exports and a continuous record export pace for beans will lead to the government raising its export projections and lower ending-stocks again.
This past week, I had a bearish start for the week forecaster and a bullish end to the week on short-covering. That is essentially what happened. July corn fell 15 cents from Fridays close last week into Wednesdays low then rallied 10 cents off that low to Thursdays high buying back more than three quarters of the break. Beans did better after breaking down into wednesday to our 9.30 support I gave or 14 cents lower than Fridays close we turned up Thursday and rallied twenty cents and took all the weeks weather break and some. Next week, we should start the week firmer Monday and possibly Tuesday on warmer drier weather and a feared bullish crop report with profitable longs taking profits Wednesday, prior to Thursday's report closing lower Wednesday. Thursday, of course, belongs to the report and what the government actually says.But, if we come in Monday and we see rain in the forcast we open and close lower Monday followed by a higher close Tuesday as traders cover shorts befor the crop report.The bottom line is its weather, weather and weather as 90% of or near term pricing influence. Support on july corn is 3.40 with resistance 3.58 then 3.64. Beans for july still have support at 9.30 then 9.20 with resistance at 9.58 then 9.76. Wheat support for july is 4.28 and resistance at 4.54