ADDIN RISK PREMIUM........ This looks to be the last week where weather that's dry is bearish for grains as drier is what is needed to finish planting. Corn will be over 97% seeded by Sunday and beans 75%. Then drier becomes the fuel for a seasonal weather premium. A weather premium is a higher price schedule to reflect the uncertainties of a growing season. The markets will trade as high as it is hot and dry and for how long. Next week the market moves to weather as a primary pricing source. Weather and its effect on crop condition and eventual yields validates prior crop report estimates.The prior March 30 planted acreage report suggested 3.7 million acres more corn will be planted and with perfect weather ending stocks will double. Should lack of rain and high heat at pollination occur, we fall short again. Of coarse the June 30 acres planted report may change the ending stocks picture before weathers potentially dire affect, If talk of less corn acres and more bean acres were seeded come true. For now weather as posted by WXRISK.com the ag weather site sees it very warm and dry all this week and generally through month end across the Midwest. There is a chance of a Midwest rain Saturday and Sunday off one weather model. Should it fail and the forecast stays hot and dry we look for higher prices next week. This week looks to benefit from the drying and warmer conditions on two fronts. One, planting progress will soar and two, warmer evenings will help corn emergence. Corn grows at night if warm enough. There's been a lot of talk that the early planting of corn will lead to higher yields. In some years prior when planting came early, yields were higher, but not due to the early planting but timely rains at corns pollination and beans pods setting stage. This false sense of security had the USDA project corn yields this year at 166 bushels per acre, a record. How can you do that without knowing the weather in advance. Oddly, they used the 20 years prior last year and added two bushels per acre for the average. They left last year's 147.2 bushels per acre out as it was a disaster and would have cut ending stocks from their estimate, measurably. Other odd fundamentals left out was current conditions, which have been less than perfect. First planted acreage were off the late March early April Midwest record-breaking warmth, then we turned cold with three frosts. Over 50 counties in Illinois and Indiana reported re-seeding of acres. Then cold evenings until this week lending to slowl emergence. Not a good start. Weather from here on out will sort this out. The crop progress report after the close Monday put corn planted at 87% and beans 46%. No key state was behind the average, so the Midwest producers continue to push acres in quickly. No condition reports were released, so next Monday looks to have our first corn condition report. The market will be anxious the release as many will expect a poor crop rating but recent years has shown the USDA starting out unusually high with ratings then whittle down from there. Monday and Tuesday saw no new export news, a dry forecast encouraging a fast planting pace and bearish outside markets. Yet, corn, wheat and beans after hitting support Monday have rallied to suggest funds are done selling and Monday's lows are at least a near-term low. Technicals read like this. July corns support is 5.90, then 5.74 a major trendline. Resistance is 6.00, 6.16 then 6.28. July bean support is 14.10, then 13.80, the major support line. A close under and 13.50 would be next. Resistance is 14.40. July wheat support lies that 5.92 with resistance unchanged then 6.24.