Our first report of the week came with our Weekly Export Inspection Report showing 27.5 million bushels of corn was inspected by the USDA for near term shipment, down from 31.3 the week prior 39.3 a year ago and four week average of 35 m.b. We need to stay between thirty and thirty-eight to remain positive for demand with forty or more bullish. The shortened holiday week certainly is expected to give us a lower number as there is less export and shipping days. I see today's number as neutral to friendly from a demand view but the big picture into summer as bullish. The shortened holiday week certainly is expected to give us a lower number as there is less export and shipping days. I see today's number as neutral to friendly from a demand view but the big picture into summer as bullish. The Crop Progress Report came out on Tuesday at 3:00p as expected after seven dry days to get some planting done. 82% of the crop was planted vs. 86 last years, 93 on the five year average and up 20% from the week prior. Those key Eastern Belt growers that were furthest behind were: Illinois 62% planted up 42% from the prior week. Indiana 55 vs. 24 and Ohio 76 vs. 39%. WXRISK.COM the weather site sees planting delays due to a current rain system into Thursday with the planting window open again on Friday to Sunday before another wet system enters. We look to push to 94% planted by Sunday. As expected, the wet April and May sets up 30% of our corn to be planted in the last 25% of the preferred planting dates. It simply makes the summer growing season weather more important than normal. This is identical to last year. Last summer's growing season for June and July was generally cool with timely rains making late plantings a non-issue. If we were to have a late June through July 25 th period being hotter and drier, then there would be a problem. The wet planting period sets up a corn crop to develop a shallow root system due to saturated top soil. If our crop hitting key yield development time into early July, our hottest period, instead of mid to late June due to these late plantings sees those high eighties into the 90's plus degrees our top soil dries out quickly. This will not allow the roots to develop just under the surface to top into the lower sub soil moisture if we are dry as well. Watch out for month end profit taking before Friday. We have spent two and a half weeks between 4.18 and 4.31 basis July. A close under 4.18 and 4.00 to 4.05 could be seen but a close over 4.31 sets up 4.38 then 4.50. Be long term into August bullish but near term cautious.
Tuesday's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 16.9 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, up from 16.2 the week prior, a year ago of 13.9 and strong four week average of 12.3 m.b. It is not a block busting number but being up on a holiday shortened week is impressive. It continues to support record world demand and the U.S. Exports with no end in sight. Tuesday's Crop Progress Report showed 48% of the crop is now planted vs. 25 the week prior, 49 a year ago and 65% on our five year average. No problem- we are catching up and can plant into June 10 th time frame, so planting delay concerns will arise if rains stall planting from now on. Remember- the planting from this point can only be considered bullish. Reason 1: If corn planting slows due to rain, the farmers will use the next dry days to finish corn and that delays the bean seeding. Reason 2: If the corn planting surges quickly it takes the fear out of the market that corn acres will go unplanted and we would plant more beans. Reason 3: A normal planting pace the next two weeks means we plant exactly what the March 31 st planting intension report said and that will not meet demand. Reason 4: The rains drench the fields and we plant less beans. The planting will not be a negative force to prices. The question is will we have one of those fifty to sixty cent corrections like we saw in March and April? If we do not see it before the month's end it is not likely to happen ahead of the June 10 th USDA Crop Report as traders will want to be long as they will expect another cut in ending stocks. Support is 11.75 then 11.50 with resistance 12.00 then 12.22.
Our Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 18.9 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export up from fifteen the week prior and four week average of twelve. As we have begun the harvest of the Winter Crop in the Southwest and June the big Winter Wheat Harvest month were starting to see a pick up in demand as we are the first world port to be about ready to ship. Record domestic and world inventory does not leave us much room for demand to strengthen prices but at least demand is no longer a bearish force as it was from June 2008 until April. Tuesday's winter Wheat Crop Condition Report came in at 45% in good to excellent condition down 3% from the week prior and staying between 43 and 48% since the first report on April 6 th . The Kansas Crop at 91% headed out is showing damage from the early April freeze. They came in at 47% G-E down 7% from the week prior, and Nebraska at 69% G-E down 8%. Bottom line is there is no hope to see a crop rating of 65% or higher making the U.S. the world's primary port of origin for high protein milling of wheat and a strong demand to drive prices. This leaves us with prices only to move higher on supply side concerns. The concern now is the Spring Wheat Planting. Tuesday's report showed 79% of the Spring Wheat delivered on the Minneapolis Exchange is now planted down from 97% a year ago. Key producers Minnesota at 71% and North Dakota 69% have been more aggressively planting beans than wheat which is always planted first. Traders now fear the reason for this is the wheat growers simply did the math. The math says planting beans in record world demand will bring higher profits than wheat with record world supplies. This sets up a June 30 th Planted Acres Report to possibly show to three million less Spring Wheat acres were seeded and one to three m.a. more beans than the march 31 st Planting Intension Report suggested. This further supported the supply side rally today. Next resistance is 6.34 then 6.60 with support down at 6.04 through Friday.