FAST SEEDING............... As expected, we came in Monday starting out lower on prices as the funds fat with profits from Friday, took them as it was the last day of the month and measurable rain was in the forecast setting up early planted corn and beans to benefit from in early emergence. With grains down slightly late in the session Monday they gave way to a sharp rally in the last 10 minutes of trade as traders continue to price in almost daily the perceived tight stocks, demand ratio. Tuesday saw markets post-early lows again after the crop progress report with a late rally. The crop progress report came out after the close Monday showing a faster planting pace than expectations. Corn planting was put at 53% complete versus 27% last year, over the 10 year average of 35 and pre-report estimates of 42 to 46%. It's always been a common thinking that early planted grains have higher yields. But planting progress has no lasting effect. Last year's late planting due to record April and May rains and flooding saw price strength and this year corn is already $.20 off of March low and beans 1.50 with dry conditions as funds trade demand indicators first. Traders know the crop always gets in, so it's a one day trade effect. Next Monday the weather show begins when we get our first corn crop condition report. Markets will aggressively trade off the condition report as this determines eventual yields and production. Beans came in at 12% planted versus 5% last year. The market psychology remains the same. Take profits on daily rallies and buy the breaks. Traders fear next Thursday's May 10 USDA crop report will cut ending stocks measurably keeping breaks to a minimum. Note, Thursday's weekly export sales report will have last week's big Chinese purchases for corn and expected good bean number as well. WXRISK.COM the AG weather site sees the next five days with 1 to 2 inches of rain across 70% of the Midwest grain belt with next week setting up wet again. It's too early to suggest planting delays especially as were well ahead of averages. So view the rain as beneficial for current planted crops setting us up for a high first corn condition number next Monday. Technicals read like this. July corns support is 6.18 then 6.08. Resistance 6.36, then 6.44. July beans support is 14.95 then 14.70. Resistance 15.05 then 15.40. July wheat support is 6.40. Resistance 6.58.
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