The crop progress report came out late Monday. It put the condition of corn unchanged at 53% in G-E cond. Traders ignore the cond. Reports now as harvest progress tells all about the condition and quality. The progress report put harvest at 47% complete versus 33 the week prior, 66 a year ago and 10 year average of 43%. Farmers are allowing more corn to sit in the fields longer to allow drying and save those costs while attacking the soybean harvest. The highlight of the corn harvest is those states with the lowest year to date condition ratings and potential yields are furthest behind with Indiana 30%havevested, North Dakota 31, Ohio 8 and PA 23%. This should lend thought that the last production estimate to come. will be the lowest. Soybean condition ratings are over now that harvest is past 50% complete at 69% versus 81 a year agao and ahead of the 10 year average of 64%as growers let corn field dry allowing bean harvest to surge. Like corn, beans too saw the worst condition states with lowest potential yields with Indiana 55% harvested, Ky 40, Mo 54 and OH 23% of course if we harvest the lowest yielding beans last, we should expect our lowest production est. on the final crop production report. As expected, the rain that hit drought stricken Tx and Oh on October 8,9 led to a surge in winter wheat planting as growers took advantage of a wet top soil. Harvest pushed to 73% from 59 the week prior and 10 year average of 77%. This certainly abates some of the fear acres will go umplanted. Problem now is the weather site wxrisk.com sees this week and next as dry across the western winter wheat states curbing wheat early progress. Wheats early emergence and condtion before going dormant in Nov. determines its ability to survive any harsh winter storms , high winds and iceing. If weather gurus are correct on their projections of a colder and snowier winter, we should expect to see winter wheats worst enemy arrive with several Alberta clippers and Saskatchewan screamers out of Canada creating fear of winter kill. Stay tuned.
Techinicals read like this.
December corn support lies Wednesday at 6.22 with resist. 6.60. a close under 6.22 and set up 5.96 as next support. A close over 6.60 and 6.82 is next resistance. November bean support lies at 12.40. a close under and 12.10 is next. Resistance is 12.82. a close over and 13.20 is next. December wheat supports is a weak 6.00 then a strong support at 5.75.Resistance is 6.35, then 6.70.
Market psychology is to trade outside markets influence on the covernight and day session opening. While funds await news on exports. Demand news will give us the biggest upward swings as corn and bean ending stocks are tight while the days have funds trading economic markets leaving us with smaller moves and two sided trade.