Monday’s weekly export inspection report came out at 10a central time showing 42.2 million bushels of corn was inspected by the USDA for near term shipment. This was up from 37.5 the week prior and strong four week average of 33.7 m.b. Considering corn had made new 9 week high prices and demand was better suggests a very strong export pace will continue and importers are concerned about higher prices yet to come. After making new high prices for the month- Monday we saw some profit taking as longs balance books ahead of Thursday’s USDA Monthly Crop Report at 7:30a central time. Our three day holiday weekend as markets is closed this Friday. Traders are reluctant to hold too many contracts or add on ahead of report and holiday closings due to risk. Thursday’s report should show a small cut in ending stocks off the better export pace and South American crop issues but the trade is more concerned about weather and its impact on beginning field work and planting and that will keep the downside limited and new highs yet to come this month. Wxrisk.com the weather site sees more rain systems across the grain belt on Friday and Saturday, April 13th and 14th, then on the 17th and the 18th. He notes the ocean water temperatures driving the wet La-Nina pattern were the second coldest on record at March’s end; so there is no end in site to this pattern. May corn have minor support between 3.93 and 3.96 with major support at 3.88 and resistance at 4.18. Buy the dips off supports.
Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 16.3 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, down from 26.3 the week prior and four week average of 23 m.b. No surprise here as we were 90 cents higher than our Monday close, when we close Friday. There was no talk of another Argentina farm stoppage so importers took a step back. However, it will not last, they will be back in as needs for high protein in Asian continues and with talk of lower yields and productions out of South America. After making new highs on the month Monday we have had two sided trade visited both days this week as the rallies are used to take profits ahead of Thursday’s crop report and our three day holiday. The breaks are being bought as demand remain strong, South America’s harvest is showing disappointing yields and the trade fears another cut in ending stocks on Thursday’s report. Weather certainly has to be in the bullish mix as well. Nothing has changed in my monthly outlook. Buy the breaks as all these issues support higher prices further when we return after the holiday as the trade sees beans undervalued. May support lies at 9.60 the bottom of a day chart gap from last week with near term April goal of 10.25 resistances. A close over 10.25 sets up 10.50 as next resistance.
Monday’s first report came with the weekly export inspection report showing 16.4 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export vs. 15.7 the week prior and four week average of 16. Pretty boring… Not bullish or bearish leaving the trade to look to weather and its impact on emerging winter wheat crops. After the close Monday our first crop condition report of the year by the USDA came out at 3:00p central time. It rates the winter wheat crop in five categories: Very Poor, Poor, Fair, Good and Excellent. The trade will add the good and excellent categories to get a number to compare week by week to determine how the crop is doing. The reason for these two to be combined is its percentage of crop in good to excellent that is the highest quality and in most demand by domestic and foreign millers. Millers need wheat high enough in quality to meet standards for human food consumption. Wheat in the Very Poor to Poor is generally considered quality suitable only for the animal feed ration. This report came in with 43% of the crop in Good to Excellent condition vs. when it went dormant November 24th at 65% G-E and a year ago of 45%. Needless to say- this crop is in need of sunny, warm days and timely rain to improve quality. The last 10 days have brought cold, rain and snows to emerging wheat and freezing temperatures last night. However, there will be talk of some freeze damage, the worst might be over. The hard red winter wheat crop looks to see rain April 11th and 12th, the 16th and the 19th and 20th. If snow stays away and some warmer temps arise, we could begin to see improvement. May has support at 5.50 with resistance at 5.90.