QUARTERLY STOCK TO WHEAT........... Monday's crop condition report put corn at 52% in good to excellent condition, up 1% from the week prior and yearly low. This small up tick came on slightly higher ratings in Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin, offsetting lower numbers in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. Too small to mean anything now that harvest is underway. Were 15% harvested versus 26 a year ago and 10 year average 16%. There's a mix of harvest yields results from better to worse than expected. The wide ranges of this past growing season's weather looks to continue to hear continue talk of wide varying opinions on yields. The condition reports are no longer a factor in pricing. Traders await the October 12 USDA crop report for a overall harvest to date opinion on yields. Soybeans came in at 53% good to excellent, unchanged on the week, versus 63% a year ago. Harvest is underway at 5% complete having traders waiting early fieldwork opinions. The winter wheat planting progress got the most attention with 26% of this year's crop planted versus the ten year average of 35%. Drought stricken states Texas came in at 14% seeded versus the 10 year average of 34 and Oklahoma 1% versus 31%. These states look to continue dry and warmer than normal the next two weeks keeping planting well behind. No one will panic until after October 10. Okay, we got our break to start the week we called for with December corn hitting a low of 6.30, November beans 12.26 and December wheat 6.24 before short covering and light buying entered on positioning ahead of Friday's 7:30 AM central time small grains and quarterly stocks on and reports. Pre-report estimates for stocks widely vary. Corn stocks on hand as of September 1 see a average estimate of 942 million bushels and 1.708 billion bushels a year ago. With a range of 750 m.b. to 1.050 billion bushels. This is important as it will give us a look at what ending stocks on the USDA October 12 monthly crop report will say. Price strength all comes from shrinking ending inventory. There's some fear that recent cuts in the last two monthly crop reports for feed and ethanol usage could lead to a higher stocks number. It's been the government's game to erase a bullish slant on declining production by erasing usage. The average bean estimate for stocks on hand is 224 m.b. with a range of 202 to 250 m.b.. The fear for a bearish report comes on thinking the government will address slower demand in June, July and August. Quarterly stocks predicting is tricky. If there on the high end of estimates a measurable break will occur as it will also suggest a bearish October report carryover estimate as well. This report is more about the wheat market and the production numbers. All the pre-report trade estimate averages are under the previous estimates for all wheat varieties except soft red winter wheat projected up 2 m.b.. Durham wheat estimate is down 4 m.b. spring wheat down 35 m.b. hard red winter wheat off 3 m.b. and all wheat combined down 37 m.b. If the average numbers are hit we open higher but no rally beyond the initial reaction. But there is room for a bullish surprise if the USDA comes closer to a earlier month agency report suggesting 3 million spring wheat acres were flooded out. Not a reliable report to trade and the recent government shell game on crop condition and usage report say, if you're long and have profits prior the report, take them or put tight stops in. December corn resistance Wednesday lies at 6.60 ,a close over and 6.90 is next. November bean resistance is 12.80, a close over and 13.20 is next. December wheat resistance lies at 7.00 with support at 625.