Monday's crop condition report came out about as expected with a 1% change either way. Because the growing season is over were no longer seeing those 4 or 6% changes on the week in the good to excellent category driving prices. This leaves the USDA making only a small 1 or 2% adjustments, not enough to move the market or have traders making any mental adjustments to production prospects.
Corn condition came in at 22% in good to excellent condition versus 23 the week prior and 54% a year ago. It's more profitable than not, conditions could drop a couple more points the next several weeks as it's hard for the hardest drought hit states to get better but the states rated higher than the good to excellent average number are probably too high and should come in lower. Either way, the condition report has little impact on prices and limited only to the next opening.
Bean conditions came in at 30% good to excellent down 1% from the week prior and under 57% good to excellent a year ago. 96% of the crop has set its pod leaving 4% yet to fill the pod. I suspect the trade will ignore that 4% as there is a possibility those pods will never fill and or drop off the plant as some growers are reporting. Weather and its effect on crops now turn from conditions of the crop to its condition on prospective future planted acres.
We're getting ready to plant our first new crop of the year, our winter wheat crop. We're watching key producing states. Here's how field conditions came out versus the month prior. Texas 17% good to excellent versus 23, Oklahoma 4% versus 80, Nebraska 1% versus 3, Colorado 3% versus 2 and number one wheat producing states Kansas 1% good to excellent unchanged. These numbers look bad for the start of our September planting season but not on this report was heavy rains that fell this weekend. Up to 3 inches over Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma. This looks to improve topsoil moisture with this week's hurricane bringing more heavy rain to Texas, Oklahoma and possibly as far north as Kansas. So conditions are better lending to a negative note from weather.
On my last report, I said this week will have a common theme. That theme is it's the last trading week of the month and funds fat with profits would use any rally on the day to sell taking profits and taking handsome bonuses on profit-taken before month end. Then re-entering buying long again next week as the new month begins and traders get positioned long ahead of the September 12 USDA monthly crop report. So far, we saw higher trade or openings Sunday night and Monday night with sharp sell offs bringing prices down on the day. Combining the two days we have seen from Sunday night's high to today Tuesday low drops of $.60 on beans, $.30 on corn and $.29 for wheat. Unless something enters that's very bullish like a demand announcement, we should expect daily rallies or upticks to be sold. Don't sell breaks, as long term bullish psychology could turn up markets quickly without warning. Note, though we're seeing a fair amount of selling this week, traders and funds will be anxious to buy long next week on two issues.