We started the week's reports with our Tuesday's 10:00a Weekly Export Inspection Report showing 43.1 million bushels of grain was inspected by the USDA for near term shipment. This was over the week prior of 36 our four week average of 37.5 and a year ago of 22.1 m.b. Anything between 30 and 39 is demand friendly and over 40 is Bullish. With China's drought expanding, they are taking corn from reserves to move to rural areas leaving less corn for export to surrounding Asian neighbors. This should continue to keep Asian imports of U.S. corn strong especially with the recent lower cash bids and a harvest of plenty to begin shortly. Demand is not a driving force the immediate near term as corn's attention turns to Friday's big USDA Monthly Crop Report were traders expect a bigger production number from the August report. Once the production is finalized and harvest gets to 25% or more complete, demand moves to the forefront of futures pricing. After the close Tuesday our 3:00p Weekly Crop Progress Report came out showing 69% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the week prior but over a year ago of 61%. This is why most opinions are heading to record yields and production. 50% of the crop is in the dented stage leaving half vulnerable to frost or freeze damage if it should occur this week but weather gurus say: no frost is forecasted through Sunday. Next Monday about 25% will be at risk. Funds bought back 3000 contracts yesterday to cut risk into Friday's Crop Report and covered a little more today (Wednesday) in case of a friendly surprise on the report but traders are anxious to get short again after the report. WXRISK.COM sees it getting pretty cold next week but any frost event looks limited to no further south than North Dakota if at all. Corn looks to keep above 3.00 and below 3.20 ahead of Friday's 7:30a central time crop report.
Tuesday's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 9.5 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export down from 17.6 the week prior, equal our four week average and well over a year ago of 2.9 m.b. The week prior number was a monster inspection number with this week's 9.5 more reflective of demand which is still our driving force in the long term. China was in for 6.3 of the total and shows no let up by them. After the close on Tuesday, the Crop Progress Report came out showing 68% of the crop is in G-E condition down 1% from the week prior but over a year of 57%. The lower rating came as Michigan's crop rating dropped 6% from the week prior but overall this is being called a great crop by the USDA. 7% of the crop is dropping its leaves leaving 93% of the crop to some degree vulnerable to frost or freeze damage this week if it occurs. Noted in the corn commentary no sub-zero temperatures are forecasted through Sunday. If we can avoid a frost event through September 25th the crop's made. Funds bought back 5000 contracts yesterday and a smaller amount today but like corn traders, bean traders too expect a Bearish report on Friday. After the report, we expect one more leg down on prices before pre-harvest lows are in. November should hold above the 9.10 to 9.20 area and not higher than 9.65 before Friday's report.
Tuesday's Weekly Export Sales Report remained a neutral factor at 16.9 m.b. inspected for near term export vs. the week prior of 16.7 and four week average of 15 m.b. We need 20 m.b. or more weekly to catch the attention of the market. At this pace of hand to mouth as needed; buying as we will never get through the burdensome inventory here and on foreign ports. Too much wheat and not enough demand as millers see no reason with record ending stocks out there to build inventory themselves. The Crop Condition report continued to show a great spring wheat crop at 74% G-E condition off 1% from the week prior but 19% over a year ago. 58% is now harvested. North Dakota is only 44% harvested and in need of a quicker pace as some weather groups suggest a very cold front is coming down early next week and their far northern proximity sets them up for problems if a frost or freeze sets in. Friday's Crop Report should be a non-event for wheat as the USDA will wait for the September 30th small grains report before adjusting wheat production and of course Ending Stocks should come in burdensome. We are closing in on my projection for a September Low of 4.50 basis December. Insure to adjust downward that low now that rains came to Australia late in their wheat development.