SQUEEZING CORN........... Monday's weekly crop progress report again showed a fast planting pace underway. Corn planting came in at 71% versus the 10 year average of 55% and only 4% under the record for this day. Growers are trying to get planted early so as they can harvest earlier than normal. They remember the late summer heat last year and dryness that saw late harvested corn yields suffer. Then the year prior, we had too much rain late in the season, especially August leaving late planted corn with lower yields again. So why not try and beat the trend and get pollination through in June and avoid the very late July early August heat. Bean planting came in at 24% complete versus the 10 year average of 14%. Traders expect the first crop condition report of the year for corn next Monday. The old saying is, it's not what you plant , but what you grow, and the condition report are the traders eye into whether the crop is improving or declining. Then weather becomes the driving force for prices. Corn strength the last two days came from a squeeze play in the may corn forcing prices up $.20 on the day before fading late. China's massive corn purchases two weeks ago leaves exporter searching for corn to ship them. Farmers are sitting on old crop inventory hoping for higher summer prices. This has longs in the market for May delivery wanting the corn not the profit. This squeezes the remaining shorts in the market, obligated to deliver the corn to try and buy their way out in the futures as they can not finf the corn. This helped pull July through December higher. Bean saw the opposite reaction this week. After hitting new contract highs for the year last week, pricing in demand from China and the perception Thursday's big government crop report will be bullish, decided enough was enough and went to the bank , busting bean's down $.80 from the high after a 1.50 rally. Wednesday should be positioning and posturing prior Thursday's USDA monthly report due for release at 7:30 AM central time. Pre-report estimates are bullish old crop corn with a 2011- 12 ending stocks of 761 m.b. down 40 m.b. from last month, but bearish new crop year contracts with estimates for 2012- 13 marketing year ending stocks 1 .666 b.b. Bean average estimates were all friendly with old crop year at 215 m.b. down 35 m.b. and new crop year 172 m.b.. They will trade the report Thursday and aliitle Friday, but Monday it's all about planting and weathers impact.
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