THOUGHTS ON STOCKS.......... Thursday's exports sales report showed 754 t.m.t. of wheat was sold for new crop shipments after June 1 when wheats new marketing year begins. All the key_buyers were countries interested in milling wheat for human consumption and little to no low grade for the feed ration. Our wheat harvest is beginning and since our US wheat is currently the highest quality crop out there we should expect to be the primary port of origin in the world for readily available high quality milling wheat. Were hoping to continue being the world's number-one port for low-quality feed wheat as well. We sit on 500 million bushels left from last years crop disaster, but wheats recent rally has wheat valued measurably higher now to corn. Corn exports were 156 t.m.t. for old crop and 325 for new crop season delivery after September 1. The total of new and old export season numbers were under expectations, but considering last week's enormous price rallied from 5.74 to 6.44 we should have expected importers to back away. Note, China moved a large previous purchases from old crop corn delivery to new crop year after September 1 . Clearly China's buying into the last USDA report that suggests we will plant record corn acres, have a record yields and double our ending stocks. Now, it's a analyst job to think outside the box. Here's how next year's robust ending stocks numbers can fall apart. Remember last year, as we entered spring the government projected a big increase in planted corn acres and ending stocks about 1.6 billion bushels. Commercial end users all said get ready for 4 dollar corn. Well, a wet spring, a dry July and too much harvest rain led to a big rally to 7.994 and almost running out of corn and ending stocks under 1 b.b. On the last USDA monthly crop report, they took a 20 year average corn yields, skipping last year's poor yield of 147 bushels per acre and came up with a projected 164 bushels per acre then added 2 bushels more per acre to 1.66, a new record, for early planting or maybe just good luck and came up with a 1.8 billion bushels ending stocks inventory for the new year. But if you take a 20 year average including last year. You come up with 160 bushels per acre and ending stocks of 1.3 billion bushels. This makes more sense to start with. Then good or bad weather either increases or decreases yields. Now a shell game is played. The last USDA report increased old crop ending stocks 50 million bushels saying early planting will lead to a early harvest beginning in August the old crop year putting new crop year plantings into old crop year carryover. Consider this. In 2008 and 09 we harvested about 300 million bushels early. In 2007 and 10, about 600 m.b. 2011 about 450 m.b. Some analytical gurus suggest this year 1 billion bushels could be harvested early. This would change all the usage figures on distribution. Lets say we have a 160 b.p.a. yield and only harvest 500 m.b. early. That means the 1.3 billion bushels carryover drops to 800 million bushels on paper and right back to where we are now. Now, what happens if weather cuts yields 3 bushels per acre and the June 30 planted acreage report shows what's some believe and that being the big early spring soybeans rally over corn will show farmers switched 2 m.a. intended for corn on the March 30 planting intention report to beans. Now ending stocks are under 400 m.b. Food for thought on just how fast things can change. Bean exports were 800 t.m.t. old crop and 153 new crop year, with China in for a whopping 536 of the total. Note, Brazil has sold 87% of its crop essentially leaving the US as the sole port of origin in the world to buy beans from until South America comes online next February. After a hot dry week, next week looks uncertain. WXRISK.com the AG weather site says the GFS weather model calls for heavy rain Sunday into Tuesday in the spring wheat states. Minnesota, North and South Dakota and Montana with lighter amounts in Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri. But the more successful European weather model has little to no rain across the heart of the Midwest grain belt. The high heat Sunday and Monday also suggests lighter rain amounts. Since there's no weather agreement conservative traders will go home flat. The high risk traders will go long into the holiday weekend betting the better European track record and high heat will give us a higher opening Monday night. Technicals read like this entering Friday's opening. Support on July corn 5.74 then 5.64 resistance 6.00 then 6.44. Support for December corn 5.08 then 4.98. Resistance 5.20 then 5.50.Support on July beans. 13.50 then 13.25. Resistance 13.95 then 14.50. Support on November beans 12.50 then 12.25 resistance 13.00, then 13.40. July wheat support is 6.58 then 6.40 resistance 6.80, then 7.22. Note , weather remains 90% of our pricing influence through early August.
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