TIMELY CORRECTION.......... Well, that was a timely price correction. As you know on my April 5 report I explain why we will get a measurable price correction off the April 10 USDA crop report, even if it's bullish. My reasoning was funds clean out long held positions each year to some level after the report as there is not another report for a month and the negative planting progress begins. We noted corn broke $.60 and beans $.80 after last year's report. This year corn broke $.65 and beans $.50. We had 6.00 to 6.10 on May futures as our buying objective on the break and May beans 13.90 to 14.10. Prices were hit on Wednesday. The question is, is this week's report low the low for the month and maybe the growing season. Weather will determine that. It's important to recognize and find a post-April report low as funds build their seasonal weather premium rally into may, June and July. Last year's post-April report low lead to a weather premium corn rally of 1.10 and beans 1.20. Our current weather outlook by WXRISK.COM, a AG whether site, is for warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest next week and possibly through May 1. But one weather model he has suggests the opposite. Here's the debate. Will the trade see this as bearish as planting at a record pace begins on the dryness. Or will they see the previously dryness in many Midwest areas as a problem getting worse and growers planting in dry soil and poor emergence. When we coming Monday we will look at current weather updates for any changes. Any change in weather to wetter could lead us to a lower start on the week, but drier sets up higher prices and a bullish mindset into the may 10 USDA crop report. Technicals read like this. July corns support is 5.90 resistance 6.36. July bean support is 14.20 , if broken next support is 14.00. Resistance is 14.60. July wheat support is 6.12. Resistance 6.30 then 6.48. Since may futures go into deliveries at the end of next week were moving to the July contract.
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