USDA RELEASE........ It's all about Monday's 7:30 AM central time USDA monthly crop report to start the week. Pre-report trade estimates by the brokerage industry came in with wide ranges but the average estimates for production was conservative. The average pre-report corn production estimate was 12.505 billion bushels versus 12.914 on last months USDA report or 409 million bushels lower. Yield was put at 148.8 bushels per acre versus 153 last month. The range was 11.913 to12.913. Any number at or narrowly above the average guess and we open higher, but sellers enter pulling us down as traders will step back and wait for the October report for the final word as harvest progresses. Anything under 12.000 b.b.funds will buy heavily pushing December corn to 8.00, 8.25 area. Bean average guess for production is 3.025 versus 3.056 last month or down 31 m.b. The yield was put at 41 bushels per acre versus 4 1.4 last month. The production estimate ranged from 2.924 to 3.085. Any number at the average guess or marginally better, we open higher then selling enters. If the production number comes in under 3 b.b. we push November futures to the 14.80 area. I still believe the report will come in with lower yields and production for both corn and beans but the numbers won't come in more bullish than all the private crop forecasts that were release the last two weeks. I also suspect that the USDA will offset the bullishness of lower production estimates by cutting feed use and export projections again. This is what they did last month. If they didn't play a shell game with the usage figures, they will have to put ending stocks inventory at almost 0. Expect the same Monday. Trading advice. If we have a mildly bullish report with a higher opening, followed by selling, putting a buy stop one cent over the initial high. If they turn up after initially selling the opening high, that's funds entering and we will push sharply higher.